Research library
Research progress summary
As of November 7, 2026 — 14 research areas and 85 measurable outcomes.
Percentages are judgment-based estimates with low confidence, using the shared scoring rubric: 0% anchors the period before ChatGPT's public release in 2022; 100% means AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. They are not benchmark accuracy or forecasts. A 0% estimate can reflect insufficient post-2022 evidence, not proof of no capability. Do not average these overlapping outcomes into an overall completion percentage.
Each outcome links to its score explanation, dated findings, sources and next measurement. Area headings link to the corresponding definition. See the research index for measurement rules.
View the completion line graph or the scalable version. Lines compare outcomes within each area; this single dated snapshot does not show change over time.
View four-date graphs for every area, including retrospective estimates for one month, six months and one year earlier. Each area has its own page; the current scores remain unchanged.
Areas
Mathematics · Software engineering · AI research · Chips and computing hardware · Robotics · Materials science · Chemistry and synthesis · Biology and protein engineering · Drug discovery · Medicine and clinical care · Energy systems · Weather forecasting and climate applications · Physics and scientific discovery · Education and skill development
Mathematics
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Advanced examination performance | 50% |
| Formal verification | 45% |
| Research problem success | 25% |
| Research productivity | 20% |
| Substantial novelty | 25% |
| Time to a new proof | 30% |
Software engineering
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Complete project delivery | 40% |
| Cost | 40% |
| Development speed | 35% |
| Fresh issue resolution | 20% |
| Maintenance quality | 20% |
| Reliable autonomy | 20% |
AI research
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Acceleration | 30% |
| Algorithmic efficiency | 40% |
| Experiment efficiency | 25% |
| Research autonomy | 30% |
| Research task performance | 40% |
| Successive improvement | 25% |
| Valid discoveries | 30% |
Chips and computing hardware
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Design productivity | 45% |
| Development feedback | 35% |
| Generalization | 35% |
| Manufacturability | 30% |
| Power, performance, and area | 30% |
| Useful AI efficiency | 40% |
Robotics
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Complete task success | 20% |
| Generalization | 35% |
| Intervention rate | 30% |
| Reliability | 30% |
| Skill acquisition | 30% |
| Useful productivity | 30% |
Materials science
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Deployment value | 15% |
| Discovery efficiency | 25% |
| Functional improvement | 40% |
| Identity and novelty | 15% |
| Scale and durability | 30% |
| Synthesis success | 30% |
Chemistry and synthesis
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Experimental efficiency | 35% |
| Process burden | 10% |
| Route execution | 30% |
| Substantial novelty | 15% |
| Transfer and scale | 30% |
| Yield and selectivity | 35% |
Biology and protein engineering
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Design success | 40% |
| Functional prediction | 30% |
| Generalization | 25% |
| Research efficiency | 30% |
| Structural accuracy | 45% |
| Useful novelty | 25% |
Drug discovery
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Candidate quality | 25% |
| Clinical benefit | 15% |
| Development efficiency | 25% |
| Portfolio productivity | 10% |
| Target validation | 25% |
| Translation | 20% |
Medicine and clinical care
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Care delivery | 25% |
| Cost effectiveness | 15% |
| Diagnostic performance | 35% |
| Equity and transfer | 15% |
| Harm and unnecessary care | 20% |
| Patient benefit | 15% |
Energy systems
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Fusion control | 35% |
| Grid reliability | 0% |
| Net energy | 0% |
| Operational efficiency | 0% |
| Research productivity | 30% |
| Storage performance | 35% |
Weather forecasting and climate applications
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Climate application validity | 35% |
| Computation | 45% |
| Decision benefit | 15% |
| Extreme-event performance | 40% |
| Forecast skill | 45% |
| Robustness | 20% |
Physics and scientific discovery
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Equation recovery | 0% |
| Experiment efficiency | 25% |
| Experimental confirmation | 0% |
| Novel prediction | 20% |
| Simulation efficiency | 40% |
| Theoretical novelty | 20% |
Education and skill development
| Measurable outcome | Estimated percentage complete |
|---|---|
| Access and disparities | 15% |
| Instructional cost | 10% |
| Learning gain | 15% |
| Retention | 10% |
| Time to mastery | 25% |
| Transfer | 15% |
Updating this summary
This is a snapshot of the estimates in the detailed outcome files on the date above. When those estimates change, update the corresponding rows and assessment date here; retain the dated reasoning in the detailed files.