Discovery efficiency

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed materials

25% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: Autonomous laboratory workflows support early efficiency capability, but corrected outcome counts and missing all-in independent-reproduction costs constrain the estimate. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. Unmeasured components receive no demonstrated-progress credit; missing evidence does not prove a missing capability.

What would move the score: Use the corrected campaign log; count attempts, staff time and full costs through outside synthesis and property verification. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Days, human hours, experiments, and total dollars from target specification to independently reproduced sample meeting all property requirements.

Evidence requirements

Provide raw characterization data, uncertainty, synthesis records, impurity analysis, and application tests. Require an independent laboratory to reproduce synthesis and functional performance. Count novelty and usefulness separately: a new phase can have no practical advantage, and a useful processing improvement can involve a known material.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Historical campaign requires corrected outcome accounting. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

January 19, 2026 correction to November 29, 2023 paper: The January 2026 amendment changes which A-Lab synthesis outcomes can be counted as confirmed. A-Lab author correction, Nature.

Interpretation and tracking value

A historical campaign's duration cannot be divided by its unrevised success total. No all-in time/cost baseline per independently reproduced qualified material is established here.

Next comparable measurement

Use the corrected campaign log; count attempts, staff time and full costs through outside synthesis and property verification. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.