Route execution

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed chemistry

30% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 10 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 30/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: Computer-directed reaction execution is demonstrated on selected tasks. Reliable completion of diverse multi-step targets, purity validation and recovery still lack complete autonomous evidence. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. Unmeasured components receive no demonstrated-progress credit; missing evidence does not prove a missing capability.

What would move the score: Assign a fixed diverse target set; verify identity, isolated purity and yield, counting all failures, manual repairs and abandoned routes. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Target compounds obtained at required purity / all assigned synthesis targets, confirmed experimentally.

Evidence requirements

Archive experimental protocols, analytical data, unsuccessful trials, instrument logs, and human interventions. Require independent execution of claimed new routes. Evaluate chemical identity and mass balance rather than accepting plausible descriptions. Compare with both expert chemists and established optimization methods under equal experimental budgets.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Laboratory task demonstrations; target success denominator incomplete. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

December 20, 2023: Coscientist demonstrated planning and execution capabilities including palladium-catalysed coupling experiments. Coscientist, Nature.

Interpretation and tracking value

Selected tasks do not establish a broad fraction of assigned multi-step synthesis targets obtained at required purity. Tool execution and final compound acceptance are different endpoints.

Next comparable measurement

Assign a fixed diverse target set; verify identity, isolated purity and yield, counting all failures, manual repairs and abandoned routes. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.