Extreme-event performance

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed weather

40% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 10 + 10 + 5 + 10 + 5 = 40/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: Historical extreme-event and cyclone evaluation supports useful forecasting breadth. Prospectively calibrated warnings and autonomous adaptation to new extremes remain incomplete. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. Unmeasured components receive no demonstrated-progress credit; missing evidence does not prove a missing capability.

What would move the score: Register event thresholds before the season; measure recall, false alarms, calibration, track error and warning lead time on every eligible observed event. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Event recall, false-alarm rate, probability calibration, cyclone-track error, and useful warning lead time on prospectively observed events.

Evidence requirements

Archive forecasts before outcomes occur. Use the same information availability, issue times, spatial resolution, and observation reference for comparators. Prespecify which events and variables will be scored to prevent selective reporting. Historical hindcasts support evaluation but cannot directly verify future century-scale projections. Distinguish better warnings from realized reductions in harm, which also depend on response systems.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Historical event-skill evidence; prospective baseline incomplete. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

December 4, 2024: The GenCast paper evaluates extreme weather and tropical-cyclone tracks and reports improvements over its ENS comparator. GenCast, Nature.

Interpretation and tracking value

Retrospective performance is not a prospective event recall/false-alarm baseline for current models. Rare-event sample counts and uncertainty matter.

Next comparable measurement

Register event thresholds before the season; measure recall, false alarms, calibration, track error and warning lead time on every eligible observed event. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.