Portfolio productivity

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed drug discovery

10% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 5 + 5 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 10/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: An observable clinical pipeline is progress toward translation, but beneficial treatments per full portfolio dollar and year are not yet established by the baseline. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. Unmeasured components receive no demonstrated-progress credit; missing evidence does not prove a missing capability.

What would move the score: Follow all portfolio entrants through confirmatory benefit and discontinuation; count all spending and elapsed time, including unsuccessful programs. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Independently demonstrated beneficial treatments per total portfolio dollar and year, accounting for attrition and delayed outcomes.

Evidence requirements

Document exactly where AI contributed: target choice, molecular design, experiments, or trial operations. Compare matched programs and control for indication, modality, starting maturity, and selection bias. Use registered trial protocols, full outcome reporting, and independent analysis. Docking scores, animal responses, and biomarker changes must not be presented as established patient benefit.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Pipeline measurement; beneficial-treatment productivity unknown. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

2026 publication; cohort cutoff March 1, 2026: The clinical pipeline analysis reports substantially different success rates between early phases. AI-enabled clinical pipeline cohort study.

Interpretation and tracking value

Phase passage is not an independently demonstrated beneficial treatment, and the study does not establish treatments per total portfolio dollar and year.

Next comparable measurement

Follow all portfolio entrants through confirmatory benefit and discontinuation; count all spending and elapsed time, including unsuccessful programs. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.