Experimental confirmation

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed physics

0% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: Agreement with a simulator does not supply the required independent physical confirmation. No qualifying confirmed-effect fraction is established in the baseline. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. A 0% score here means no qualifying post-2022 advance is established by this file's evidence under the rubric; it is not proof that the capability is absent or that the entire field is at 0%.

What would move the score: Register all candidate effects, including failures; commission independent controlled measurements and report effect sizes and uncertainty. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Predicted effects confirmed / all preregistered effects tested, with effect sizes, uncertainty, controls, and independent replication.

Evidence requirements

Release equations, assumptions, units, code, and data needed to reproduce the result. Verify dimensional consistency and applicable physical constraints. Test outside the fitted range when scientifically appropriate. Use blind analysis and correction for multiple hypothesis searches. Mathematical derivations can use formal proof where practical, but formal correctness does not substitute for empirical validation of physical assumptions.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Simulation evidence; independent physical confirmation unknown. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

September 29, 2025 preprint; 2026 journal publication: SciExplorer's evaluated environments include simulated physical systems. SciExplorer.

Interpretation and tracking value

Simulator agreement cannot be counted as independent experimental confirmation of a new physical effect. No qualifying confirmed/all-preregistered-effects fraction is extracted.

Next comparable measurement

Register all candidate effects, including failures; commission independent controlled measurements and report effect sizes and uncertainty. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.