Useful novelty

Area: definition. Apply the shared measurement protocol.

Estimated progress toward AI-managed biology

25% complete — judgment-based estimate as of November 7, 2026. Confidence: low. The scale starts at 0% before ChatGPT's public release in 2022 and ends at 100% when AI manages the field's continuing advancement without human participation. This rates the outcome's contribution to that transition, not the percentage of tasks solved, a measured fraction of the field, or time remaining.

The shared scoring rubric uses five equally weighted dimensions: execution, breadth, agenda-setting, validation, and sustained autonomous improvement. Points for this outcome are 10 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 0 = 25/100, in that order; each dimension has a maximum of 20. These component judgments make the estimate inspectable, but are not independently measured scores.

Reason for the estimate: Designed functional binders show constructive capability, while genuinely new biological function and autonomous novelty assessment are not yet demonstrated by the cited examples. The dated baseline below supplies the findings and source links used for this assessment. Unmeasured components receive no demonstrated-progress credit; missing evidence does not prove a missing capability.

What would move the score: Have independent reviewers classify prior art and function before counting; require experimental function beyond sequence or structural difference. Higher autonomy scores additionally require AI to select worthwhile work, validate results and improve the process over repeated cycles without human research management, repair or adjudication. Lower the score if replication fails, quality regresses or previously hidden human assistance is found. Preserve this dated estimate when adding future assessments.

Measurement and acceptance rule

Designs or mechanisms judged substantively different from known sequences and functions; sequence difference alone does not establish a new function.

Evidence requirements

Freeze predictions before experiments and preserve all designed candidates, including failed ones. Use controls, biological replicates, independent assays, and a second laboratory. Record sequence and family overlap with known data. Do not count a favorable predicted structure as experimental confirmation of activity or mechanism.

Related milestones

See the area's proposed milestones. Proposed targets are distinct from the dated evidence below.

Baseline as of November 7 2026

Status: Functional design examples; novelty-qualified count unknown. Sources accessed November 7, 2026. This is a documentary baseline, not an independent replication or an assertion of the worldwide best result. An unknown measurement is not zero.

Dated findings

2025 publication: BindCraft demonstrates de novo designed functional protein binders. BindCraft, Nature.

Interpretation and tracking value

A new sequence or new binding interface need not constitute a new biological function. The paper's success rate cannot be reused as a substantially new-function rate.

Next comparable measurement

Have independent reviewers classify prior art and function before counting; require experimental function beyond sequence or structural difference. Preserve this dated observation; append future results with their model/system version, denominator, budget and evidence level rather than overwriting it.