Drug discovery: completion history

All area pages | Area definition | Scoring rubric

Created November 7, 2026. The three earlier snapshots are retrospective judgment-based estimates, not scores recorded at the time. The current assessment is unchanged. Historical confidence is very low; current confidence is low. Zero can indicate an evidence gap rather than absent capability.

Chart layout updated November 8, 2026: one graph with four dated lines. Scores and assessment dates are unchanged. Overlapping lines indicate equal values; point labels show November 7, 2026. The table below contains every date's exact values.

Scalable graph | Combined 14-page report

Percentage estimates

Reconstruction notes and component scores

Components below are execution / breadth / agenda-setting / validation / sustained autonomous improvement, each out of 20. Their sum gives the percentage. The component values are judgments, not published statistics. Source links document evidence available by the cutoff, not the numerical estimate itself. The source section lists availability dates and version caveats. No area-wide average is calculated.

Candidate quality

The candidate's preclinical support predates all dates. Missing all-proposal denominators and autonomous validation prevent a rising score.

Clinical benefit

Phase 2a results were already public by June 2025. Later trial initiation does not supply additional confirmed benefit.

Development efficiency

The single-program discovery timeline predates every snapshot; later phase entry is not a failure-adjusted cost improvement.

Portfolio productivity

Earlier clinical cohorts establish a pipeline, not beneficial treatments per portfolio dollar/year. No inferred improvement is assigned.

Target validation

One experimentally supported target is available throughout; independent validation across the selected-target cohort is still missing.

Translation

Older clinical cohort evidence supports partial translation credit. Later cohorts cannot be merged into a single success-rate trend, and do not establish a new autonomy threshold.

Dated sources

All sources accessed November 7, 2026. Dates below are publication or conservative availability dates, as noted.

drugs24 | 2024-06-01 - AI-discovered drugs clinical-trial analysis. Early-phase cohort study; heterogeneous definitions and limited later-phase outcomes.

tnik | 2024-12-31 - TNIK inhibitor discovery, Nature Biotechnology. 2024 publication; year-end is a conservative availability bound, not its precise publication date.

rento | 2025-06-03 - Rentosertib randomized phase 2a trial. Small phase 2a trial; exploratory efficacy does not establish confirmatory clinical benefit.

Future updates

Keep these reconstructions separate from subsequently recorded observations. Append new dated assessments with changed component scores and source evidence; do not silently replace historical reasoning. The shared historical-method notes describe how these snapshots were made.