Research library
Energy systems: completion history
All area pages | Area definition | Scoring rubric
Created November 7, 2026. The three earlier snapshots are retrospective judgment-based estimates, not scores recorded at the time. The current assessment is unchanged. Historical confidence is very low; current confidence is low. Zero can indicate an evidence gap rather than absent capability.
Chart layout updated November 8, 2026: one graph with four dated lines. Scores and assessment dates are unchanged. Overlapping lines indicate equal values; point labels show November 7, 2026. The table below contains every date's exact values.
Scalable graph | Combined 14-page report
Percentage estimates
| Measurable outcome | Nov 7, 2025 (reconstructed) | May 7, 2026 (reconstructed) | Oct 7, 2026 (reconstructed) | Nov 7, 2026 (saved) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fusion control | 30% | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Grid reliability | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Net energy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Operational efficiency | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Research productivity | 0% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Storage performance | 0% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Reconstruction notes and component scores
Components below are execution / breadth / agenda-setting / validation / sustained autonomous improvement, each out of 20. Their sum gives the percentage. The component values are judgments, not published statistics. Source links document evidence available by the cutoff, not the numerical estimate itself. The source section lists availability dates and version caveats. No area-wide average is calculated.
Fusion control
The 2024 DIII-D study supports real-machine control credit before 2026. September's additional hardware control demonstration modestly strengthens validation.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 = 30% | fusion24 |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 = 30% | fusion24 |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 10 / 5 = 35% | pacman |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 10 / 5 = 35% | Original score and evidence |
Grid reliability
No qualifying operational reliability result is documented for these cutoffs. Zero records insufficient outcome evidence, not absence of AI grid tools.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | No qualifying source in reviewed evidence |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | No qualifying source in reviewed evidence |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | No qualifying source in reviewed evidence |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | Original score and evidence |
Net energy
Control evidence at each date does not establish facility net energy or delivered electricity; no adjacent control score is transferred to this outcome.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | fusion24 |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | fusion24 |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | pacman |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | Original score and evidence |
Operational efficiency
The cited cooling improvement is from 2018 and stays in the pre-2022 anchor. No post-anchor increment is reconstructed from it.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | cool |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | cool |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | cool |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | Original score and evidence |
Research productivity
No earlier qualifying campaign-efficiency source is recorded here. The February 2026 battery study supports a prediction-efficiency proxy, not independently confirmed discovery cost.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | No qualifying source in reviewed evidence |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 = 30% | battery |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 = 30% | battery |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 = 30% | Original score and evidence |
Storage performance
The cited adaptive-cycling result was published after the one-year cutoff. From May onward it supports laboratory cycle-life credit, not commercial efficiency or cost.
| Assessment date | Component points | Evidence used |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 (reconstructed) | 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 = 0% | No qualifying source in reviewed evidence |
| 2026-05-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 10 / 5 = 35% | cycling |
| 2026-10-07 (reconstructed) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 10 / 5 = 35% | cycling |
| 2026-11-07 (saved) | 10 / 5 / 5 / 10 / 5 = 35% | Original score and evidence |
Dated sources
All sources accessed November 7, 2026. Dates below are publication or conservative availability dates, as noted.
cool | 2018-08-17 - DeepMind: autonomous data-centre cooling. Pre-anchor cooling evidence, excluded from post-2022 progress credit.
fusion24 | 2024-02-21 - Avoiding plasma tearing instability. DIII-D control demonstration; no net-electricity claim.
cycling | 2025-12-16 - Real-time AI for solid-state lithium metal batteries. Laboratory adaptive cycling lifetime improvement, not commercial storage economics.
battery | 2026-02-04 - Discovery Learning battery lifetime prediction, Nature. Battery lifetime prediction from limited early experiments.
pacman | 2026-09-02 - PPPL: PACMAN fusion control experiments. Fusion control on real hardware; no facility net-electricity result.
Future updates
Keep these reconstructions separate from subsequently recorded observations. Append new dated assessments with changed component scores and source evidence; do not silently replace historical reasoning. The shared historical-method notes describe how these snapshots were made.