Education and skill development: completion history

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Created November 7, 2026. The three earlier snapshots are retrospective judgment-based estimates, not scores recorded at the time. The current assessment is unchanged. Historical confidence is very low; current confidence is low. Zero can indicate an evidence gap rather than absent capability.

Chart layout updated November 8, 2026: one graph with four dated lines. Scores and assessment dates are unchanged. Overlapping lines indicate equal values; point labels show November 7, 2026. The table below contains every date's exact values.

Scalable graph | Combined 14-page report

Percentage estimates

Reconstruction notes and component scores

Components below are execution / breadth / agenda-setting / validation / sustained autonomous improvement, each out of 20. Their sum gives the percentage. The component values are judgments, not published statistics. Source links document evidence available by the cutoff, not the numerical estimate itself. The source section lists availability dates and version caveats. No area-wide average is calculated.

Access and disparities

Limited attainment-subgroup evidence was already available; no new documented accessibility or demographic-coverage result changes the judgment.

Instructional cost

Implementation effort supports only an enabling cost proxy. Full costs per retained mastery success remain missing.

Learning gain

The earlier positive trial supports bounded execution with caution from unaided-test harms. The October 2026 negative working paper lowers today's execution estimate; its month-only date is insufficient to include it by October 7.

Retention

Unaided testing is an enabling observation, not the required 30/90-day retained-learning series. Keep the limited estimate flat.

Time to mastery

Shorter lesson completion was already observed. No comparable full time-to-fixed-mastery series supports further increases.

Transfer

Unaided exam harm and guarded-tutor limitations were known in 2025. No new qualifying transfer evidence in this record supports a higher estimate.

Dated sources

All sources accessed November 7, 2026. Dates below are publication or conservative availability dates, as noted.

harvard | 2025-06-03 - AI tutoring randomized crossover study. Randomized tutoring study; immediate learning and time evidence, not long-term independent mastery.

bastani | 2025-08-01 - Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning, PNAS. Conservative availability bound after the 2025 PNAS publication, not a claim of an August 1 publication date. Assisted practice and unaided performance are distinct.

Future updates

Keep these reconstructions separate from subsequently recorded observations. Append new dated assessments with changed component scores and source evidence; do not silently replace historical reasoning. The shared historical-method notes describe how these snapshots were made.